When people learn that I’m a futurist, they often assume my work involves precisely predicting what comes next, from election results and new technologies to market crashes and natural disasters. To ...

Every three months, participants in the Metaculus forecasting cup try to predict the future for a prize pot of about $5,000. Metaculus, a forecasting platform, poses questions of geopolitical ...

A fox, a hedgehog and an LLM – it sounds like the beginning of a joke, but this is in fact the introduction to a topic that is consuming the attention of Philip Tetlock, psychology professor, ...